Renovators expect challenging market conditions ahead: Insight from Canada’s first Renovation Market Index Release
March 11, 2026 – Ottawa, ON – The Canadian Home Builders’ Association (CHBA) has released a new research and economics product focused on Canada’s residential renovation industry. The new CHBA Renovation Market Index (RMI) provides an indicator of the current and future health of Canada’s residential renovation industry, which employs more than half a million people and accounts for over 107 billion dollars in investment value across the country.
The RMI builds on the success and credibility of CHBA’s Housing Market Index (HMI). It is a sentiment indicator, assessing current renovation activity, expectations for renovation activity over the next six months, and the level of client inquiries and project pipelines. Given the importance of residential renovation activity to housing quality and supply, employment, and Canada’s overall economic performance, the RMI is designed to inform policymakers, economists, financial analysts, industry stakeholders, and the media about evolving conditions in Canada’s renovation market.
The inaugural release indicates that renovators expect challenging market conditions in the first half of 2026. The RMI for the second half of 2025 reported an initial reading of 48.3 out of 100. This represents a neutral score, with neutral overall current conditions weighed down by markedly pessimistic future conditions (the Future Conditions Index only averaged 35.2).
Regional breakdowns show stronger sentiment in the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, versus poorer scores in Ontario and British Columbia – data that is also reflected in the HMI, demonstrating that the health of the renovation market also relates to housing affordability conditions, which are currently worse in Ontario and BC.
Renovation of existing homes helps improve and add to housing supply, which in turn supports housing affordability. The federal government has levers available to help Canadians renovate their homes safely and more affordably. CHBA recommends the introduction of a renovation tax credit for first-time home buyers to support their entry into homeownership and help them upgrade older homes to today’s standards. A tax credit for energy efficiency retrofits is also needed to help meet the government’s climate changes goals; retrofitting the existing housing stock is even more important than new housing to achieve those goals. Renovation tax credits are proven to fight the underground economy, since they require homeowners to get receipts, which protects homeowners from cash operators. CHBA also recommends including Net Zero and Net Zero Ready retrofits as “substantial renovations” under the New Housing GST Rebate, as well as renovations that create new housing units (like secondary suites and accessory dwelling units).
“CHBA’s new Renovation Market Index fills a gap in the data about Canada’s residential construction industry. It goes beyond the limits of available macro-economic data to capture a more accurate view of the health of the sector. For example, while investment value in renovations appears to have increased slightly, when we take into account inflation, we see that renovation investment is actually down to levels not seen since 2013. Having this data will help provide a more accurate assessment of the industry, and where it can be supported,” said Kevin Lee, CHBA CEO.
Over 70% of renovators said they were concerned about their business in 2026. This corresponds to Canadians continuing to be uncertain about their economic future, which threatens big ticket spending decisions like renovations, retrofits, and repairs. In times of economic uncertainty, there is typically an increase in Canadians hiring fly-by-night contractors who undercut the competition by not paying taxes. It is important for homeowners to always get a written contract with any size of renovation job, ensure you have the proper permitting and inspections, and that your contractor has insurance.
RenoMark renovators abide by a strict code of conduct, including always providing a written contract. Homeowners can find out more about the RenoMark program at renomark.ca.
- 30 -
MEDIA INQUIRIES
Journalists wishing to interview Kevin Lee, Chief Executive Officer of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association are encouraged to submit their request by email to media@chba.ca.
About the RMI
CHBA’s RMI provides an indicator of the current and future health of Canada’s residential renovation industry. The RMI is a sentiment indicator, assessing current renovation activity, expectations for renovation activity over the next six months, and the level of client inquiries and project pipelines. It is designed to provide early insight into renovation spending trends and the outlook for and therefore health of the home improvement sector in Canada. The data for the CHBA RMI comes from a panel of CHBA renovation-focused member businesses, who are surveyed about current business conditions and future expectations. In addition to the standard RMI questions, each quarter CHBA asks “special questions” to gather data and insights into current issues affecting renovators and the broader home improvement industry across the country.
For more information on CHBA’s RMI, including the detailed methodology and key takeaways, please visit the official CHBA RMI webpage.